Mountain Mesa, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

027
FXUS66 KHNX 070855
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
155 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry conditions and well above average temperatures will
prevail through the week. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of
triple digit heat across much of the San Joaquin Valley this
afternoon. The chances drops to 10 to 30 percent chance on
Tuesday.

2. Low afternoon humidity will occur across many locations
along with poor to moderate overnight recoveries in the
mountains and deserts.

3. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day
temperature outlooks show a 50 to 80 percent chance for above
average temperatures across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridge expected to break-down and shift eastward
over the next 24 hours. While the influences of a disturbance
pushing ashore will be felt today, its influences will be more
pronounced later in the week when temperatures approach near
normal values. In the meanwhile, will expected another day of
triple digit heat. Allowed the Heat Advisory to expire as
ensemble-based analysis show less coverage of 100 degrees than
those observed on Sunday. The trend is to have additional
disturbances enter the region and re-enforce the cooling across
Central California. By the weekend, near normal temperatures
have a good likelihood with any chances of precipitation
confined to the Sierra Nevada Crest.

High-Res short range ensemble analysis is beginning to indicate
the introduction of a weak disturbance entering the region in
the next 24 hours. While Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of
reaching 100 degrees is starting a downward trend in
percentages, Central California still sits in the 20%-40% range
this afternoon. As more of the weak disturbances influence is
felt within 24 hours, support in dropping below triple digits
increases as PoE of reaching 100 degrees falls below 10 percent
(on Tuesday). Precipitation-wise, ensembles confine the moisture
and instability to the Sierra Crest in the short term.
Therefore, will only expect isolated afternoon showers during
the next few days.

Longer range ensemble solutions do hint toward continued
cooling going through the latter part of the week. Current PoE
of reaching 95 degrees by Wednesday stands between 10%-30% with
PoE of 100 degrees at almost zero percent. Therefore, confidence
is growing that we will leave triple digits and head in the
direction of near normal over Central California. Thursday and
Friday and similar trends as PoE of reaching 95 degrees
struggles to show percentages above 20%. By that point, PoE of
90 degrees falls in the range of 45%-80% on Thursday and
continues to drop to percentages of 20%-40% by Friday. While PoE
of measurable precipitation drops to near zero, confidence in
the cooling trend toward near normal increases with PoE of 90
degrees falling to 10 percent or less by Saturday. While chances
of precipitation remain low (less than 10%) by next weekend,
confidence in another warm-up is now growing. PoE of reaching 90
degrees next Sunday increases by 10 percent over values seen on
Saturday. Therefore, the cooling will bottom-out by Saturday
and remain at near seasonal normal values going into next
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior over
the next 24 hours. Low probability (around 10%) of afternoon
showers over the Sierra Nevada between 20 UTC and 04 UTC.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Operations......Molina
Support/IDSS....DCH

weather.gov/hanford