Mountain Mesa, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

653
FXUS66 KHNX 281129
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
329 AM PST Sat Dec 28 2024

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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dense fog is anticipated across the San Joaquin Valley this morning,
with a 60 to 80 percent chance for visibilities of a quarter
mile or less between Tulare and Merced.

2. Another storm is expected to bring chances of more
precipitation to the area on Sunday.

3. Sunday afternoon and evening a 40 to 85 percent probability
of wind gusts in excess of 45 mph exists for the Mojave Slopes
of Kern County.

4. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail for
most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level ridging has built into the region early this morning
for Interior Central California. This allowed for some clear of
the skies and development of radiational fog across the San
Joaquin Valley. Short Range Hi-Res ensembles have a 30 to 70
percent chance of visibility being reduced to less than 1/4
mile. Several of the typical fog prone locations along Highway
198 and 99 already have shown by airport observation or Cal
Trans Cameras to have 1/4 miles or less visibility. LAMP spot
probabilities do indicate lifting of the fog around 10am to noon
that corresponds well with the Dense Fog Advisory (DFA) that is
out for this morning.

The remainder of Saturday is expected to be a typical San
Joaquin Valley winter day with fog/stratus burn off and then
some afternoon sun. The probability of exceeding (PoE) 60
degrees (about 5 degrees of above normal)ranges from 45 percent
in the north end of the forecast area to 75 percent in the
Bakersfield region, and near 100 percent for the Kern County
Desert.

Sunday A shortwave trough zips through NorCal with a weak upper
disturbance moving through Central California. Precipitation is
anticipated to stay north of Highway 198. Fresno Metro down to
Hanford-Visalia probability of a tenth of an inch of rain is
less than 25 percent for the 24 hour period on Sunday. Los
Banos-Chowchilla and north has the best chance of exceeding a
tenth of an inch of rain with a probability of 30 to 60 percent.
Mariposa into Yosemite National Park has a greater than 70
percent probability. Focusing in on the Park snow levels shoot
up to 7000 feet keeping snow confined to the highest elevations.
Yosemite Valley looks to stay all rain. The passes do seem to
stay all snow. The probability of exceeding 6 inches, however,
remains fairly low. Tuolumne Meadows has a 11 percent
probability and Tioga Pass at 24 percent. The spread of
solutions from the 90th to 10th percentile range from a low end
of an inch to the high end of 12 inches of snow. Deterministic
models are falling higher. Will opt to stay with the WPC
probabilities and not go for winter weather products for this
system at this time.

Kern County Mojave Slopes return to the focus on Sunday
afternoon and evening with the trough passage kicking up the
wind again for the region. The probability of exceeding 45 mph
on the Slopes ranges from 45 to 75 percent for Sunday in both
the NBM and Hi-Res ensemble solutions. The probability of
exceeding 60 mph there is the difference in opinions. The NBM is
hitting it with 40-60 percent probability, whereas the HREF hi-
res is down playing it significantly with 10 to 30 percent.
Will opt for a push down the road play for
advisory/watch/warning products on this event.

Monday through Friday the world of zonal flow visits the Golden
State for quiet weather. The probability of exceeding normal
highs temperatures for the coolest part of the year (normal high
around 55) range from 25 to 65 percent for Monday through
Wednesday and then increase for the last part of the work week
to 60 to 95 percent. Otherwise, the fog watch will be on, but
with a fairly zonal flow the fog could be rather patchy than
widespread.

Next weekend... another trough comes to visit the region. It
moves through fairly quickly. There doesn`t look to be any
significant weather impacts with that system.

The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks hold to above normal
temperatures and dry conditions for California. Good news for
the heating bills and bad news for the snow lovers.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z Update:

In the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills, MVFR with VSBY is
the general flight rule with ISOL LIFR/IFR VSBY/CIGS at the
trouble spots of KVIS/KHJO/KNLC areas along and near Highway
198. South end of the San Joaquin Valley VFR with ISOL MVFR
CIGS. AFT 19Z in general VFR with very spotty MVFR. AFT 08Z
there is a threat of LIFR/IFR again with KVIS with probs at or
below IFR of 40 to 60 percent. In turn KBFL/KFAT/KMCE less than
30 percent chance.

In the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, VFR conditions
will prevail.

In the Tehachapi Mountains, areas of MVFR and local mountain
obscuring IFR in upslope clouds thru 18Z Sat. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.

In the Kern County Deserts, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/27/2024 14:04
EXPIRES: 12/28/2024 23:59
On Saturday December 28 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera
Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ302-303-
306-307-310>312.
&&

$$

Operations...Proton
DSS..........EW

weather.gov/hanford